MELBOURNE - With the Melbourne Cup just two months away, racing enthusiasts across Australia and beyond are analyzing form guides, studying breeding lines, and placing early bets on what promises to be one of the most competitive fields in recent memory. The 2025 edition of "the race that stops a nation" has attracted a stellar international field, with horses from Ireland, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom joining Australia's finest thoroughbreds.
"This year's field has incredible depth from both local and international competitors. It's shaping up to be one of the most open Melbourne Cups we've seen in years," said veteran racing analyst and former jockey Jim Richards.
Early Favorites and Betting Markets
Leading bookmakers have installed the Irish-trained Golden Dynasty as the early $6.50 favorite, following impressive victories in the Irish St. Leger and the Prix Royal-Oak. The six-year-old gelding, trained by Aidan O'Brien and to be ridden by Ryan Moore, has the ideal combination of stamina and class that Melbourne Cup winners typically possess.
Close behind at $7.00 is the Japanese marvel Sakura Thunder, trained by Yoshito Yahagi. The five-year-old mare has been targeting the Melbourne Cup for over a year, with connections specifically tailoring her campaign around the Flemington feature. Her recent victory in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at Tokyo Racecourse confirmed her status as a serious contender.
Top 10 Betting Favorites (as of August 30, 2025)
- Golden Dynasty (IRE) - $6.50
- Sakura Thunder (JPN) - $7.00
- Aussie Legend (AUS) - $9.00
- French Connection (FRA) - $11.00
- Desert Storm (GB) - $12.00
- Southern Cross (AUS) - $13.00
- Dublin Bay (IRE) - $15.00
- Rising Sun (JPN) - $16.00
- Port Philip (AUS) - $18.00
- Royal Ascot (GB) - $20.00
Local Hopefuls Leading the Charge
Aussie Legend, trained by Chris Waller, heads the local contingent at $9.00. The six-year-old entire has been in career-best form, winning the Turnbull Stakes and running a close second in the Cox Plate behind the brilliant New Zealand mare Astoria. His versatility and proven ability at Flemington make him a serious threat.
Southern Cross, prepared by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, represents excellent value at $13.00. The lightly raced five-year-old has won his last three starts, including an impressive victory in the Caulfield Cup, and appears to be improving with each run. His breeding suggests the 3200-meter journey won't pose any problems.
International Intrigue
The international challenge is particularly strong this year, with several European horses specifically prepared for the Melbourne Cup. French Connection, trained by Francis-Henri Graffard, brings exceptional European form including a victory in the Prix du Cadran and a close second in the Ascot Gold Cup.
Desert Storm, from the powerful Godolphin operation, has been based in Australia since July, giving him time to acclimatize to local conditions. The six-year-old has shown steady improvement since arriving and could be peaking at the right time.
The Japanese Factor
Japanese horses have transformed the Melbourne Cup in recent years, with Vow and Declare (2019) and Lys Gracieux (2019, second) proving the effectiveness of the Japanese racing system. This year's Japanese contingent is the strongest yet, with three horses likely to take their place in the field.
"The Japanese approach to the Melbourne Cup is incredibly thorough," explains Racing Victoria's International Racing Manager, Sarah Johnson. "They study every aspect of Flemington, from the track surface to the weather patterns, and their horses arrive perfectly prepared."
Track Conditions and Weather Outlook
Long-range weather forecasts suggest Melbourne Cup Day could see mild conditions with possible light showers, which would favor horses with proven wet track ability. Golden Dynasty has exceptional form on soft tracks, while Sakura Thunder has never raced on anything worse than good ground.
The Flemington track has been in excellent condition throughout the spring carnival preparation, with the surface playing fairly for all runners. Track manager Lachlan McKenzie reports that the new drainage systems installed during the winter are working perfectly.
Jockey Bookings and Stable Confidences
The jockey bookings provide additional insight into stable confidence. The securing of Ryan Moore for Golden Dynasty indicates the O'Brien team's serious intentions, while Joao Moreira's commitment to Sakura Thunder gives the Japanese mare significant riding strength.
Local riders are not to be underestimated, with Damien Oliver confirming his ride on Aussie Legend and Hugh Bowman partnering Southern Cross. Both jockeys have multiple Melbourne Cup victories to their credit and know exactly what it takes to win Australia's greatest race.
Barriers and Final Field Declaration
The barrier draw, scheduled for the Tuesday before the race, will play a crucial role in determining the final betting markets. Historical analysis shows that barriers 5-15 provide the best winning chances, with outside barriers particularly disadvantageous given the sprint to the first turn.
Several horses remain on the ballot, with final declarations due by 9:00 AM on the Saturday before the race. Emergency runners Ballarat Pride and Moonee Valley could still gain entry if higher-rated horses are withdrawn.
Expert Predictions and Analysis
Leading form analysts are divided on this year's winner, with compelling cases for several horses:
Jim Richards (Triple Crown Racing)
"Golden Dynasty has the class and the pedigree to handle the unique demands of Flemington. His European form translates well to Australian conditions, and Ryan Moore's booking is a significant positive."
Sally Morrison (Thoroughbred Racing Weekly)
"Don't underestimate Southern Cross. He's the only horse in the field improving with each run, and the Maher-Eustace team has an exceptional record with stayers. The $13 odds represent genuine value."
Kenji Nakamura (Japan Racing Association)
"Sakura Thunder has been prepared specifically for this race for 18 months. Her form in Japan is exceptional, and Japanese horses continue to excel at Flemington. She's the one to beat."
Betting Strategy and Value Opportunities
For punters seeking value, several horses at longer odds present interesting opportunities. Port Philip at $18.00 has been overlooked despite solid recent form and proven stamina. The Waterhouse-Bott-trained gelding finished fourth in last year's Melbourne Cup and has improved significantly this preparation.
Dublin Bay at $15.00 represents another value opportunity. The Irish horse has been specifically targeted at the Melbourne Cup and arrives with excellent credentials, including a victory in the Irish Cesarewitch.
Recommended Betting Approaches
- Win Bet: Golden Dynasty ($6.50) - class and proven international form
- Each-Way Value: Southern Cross ($13.00) - improving local hope with great connections
- Long Shot: Port Philip ($18.00) - proven Cup performer at attractive odds
- Exotic Bets: Box trifecta with Golden Dynasty, Sakura Thunder, Aussie Legend, and Southern Cross
Historical Context and Trends
Analysis of the last 20 Melbourne Cups reveals several important trends that could influence this year's result:
- 75% of winners were aged 5-7 years old
- International horses have won 8 of the last 10 editions
- Horses with previous Group 1 victories in Australia have a 65% strike rate
- Only 3 winners have started at odds longer than $20
- European horses perform better in soft track conditions
The Social and Cultural Impact
Beyond the racing and betting, the Melbourne Cup remains Australia's most significant sporting and social event. This year's cup is expected to attract a television audience of over 4 million Australians, with millions more following the race internationally.
The economic impact extends far beyond the $8 million prize pool, with the Victorian Racing Club estimating the total economic benefit to Melbourne and Victoria at over $400 million annually.
Final Thoughts and Recommendations
The 2025 Melbourne Cup shapes as one of the most competitive in recent memory, with legitimate chances spread across multiple horses from different countries and racing systems. The international contingent is exceptionally strong, but the local horses cannot be dismissed.
Golden Dynasty deserves favouritism based on class and recent form, but Southern Cross and Sakura Thunder present the most serious challenges. For those seeking value, Port Philip and Dublin Bay offer attractive odds for horses with legitimate winning chances.
Ultimately, the Melbourne Cup's beauty lies in its unpredictability. While form analysis and expert opinion provide guidance, the 3200 meters of Flemington turf will be the final arbiter on the first Tuesday in November.
Melbourne Cup Day is Tuesday, November 4, 2025, at Flemington Racecourse. Post time is 3:00 PM AEDT.